Wednesday, December 8, 2010

Valuations

Goldman Sachs expects S&P 500 earnings to be $94 next year and $104 in 2012, which gives the index a price-earnings multiple of 13 on 2011's earnings and less than 12 on 2012's estimate. Compare that to the ten-year Treasury, which at a 3.14 percent yield trades for nearly 32 times earnings. And stocks can and will generate more and more income as payouts rise; the ten-year Treasury cannot. Investors looking over the landscape are increasingly turning to stocks, and you can see why. Bonds are going the other way, falling sharply.

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